Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Power Struggle or The Resilient Enterprise

Power Struggle: World Energy in the Twenty-First Century

Author: John R Moroney

Can catastrophic climate change in this century be averted without strangling the world economy and global aspirations for improved living standards, which depend on the continuing prominence of fossil fuels in the 21st century? Power Struggle: World Energy in the Twenty-First Century argues that it can. The solution to the dilemma, says Professor Moroney, lies in the commercial development of zero-emission coal plants. Half of all human CO2 emissions originate in 8,000 electric power plants, refineries, steel mills, and other manufacturing facilities around the world. The technology is at hand to capture the CO2 emissions from these big plants and store them permanently and harmlessly in geological traps and the deep ocean instead of releasing them into the atmosphere. Numerous carbon capture and storage technologies are in various stages of experimentation and small-scale demonstrations. Although large-scale storage operations are not yet in place anywhere, coal-fired power plants with near-total capture of CO2 emissions will become operational in the U.S. and Western Europe as early as 2012. A second key theme in Power Struggle is that unconventional oil and gas are feasible long-term substitutes for conventional oil and gas. A third key contribution of Power Struggle is to demonstrate the tight coupling between energy per capita and real standards of living.

Robert Eagan - Library Journal

In this solid, if pedestrian, survey of world energy issues, Moroney (economics, Texas A&M Univ.) argues that oil, natural gas, and coal-fuels now representing 85 percent of all energy consumed around the globe-will continue to dominate despite predicted depletion of world reserves. Renewable energy solutions are largely discounted here, and conservation measures are not mentioned. Moroney worries about radioactive waste storage from nuclear power plants, yet he puts great faith in the development of capture-and-storage technologies of CO2 fossil-fuel emissions. The author's claim that his text is fit for "nonspecialized adult audiences" seems accurate. For larger collections.



Table of Contents:

Illustrations

Foreword

Preface

Acknowledgments

1 Why Energy Is Essential 1

Introduction 1

The Vital Role of Energy 2

Energy in Everyday Life 3

Energy and Real Living Standards in the G-7 4

Energy and Real Living Standards in the D-6 8

Commercial and Traditional Energies 9

Energy and Real Living Standards in Low-Income Countries 9

Nonmonetary Elements of Real Living Standards 10

Economic Growth Improves the Quality of Life 14

The Role of Energy in Economic Growth 15

Conclusions 16

2 World and Regional Energy Demand 19

Introduction 19

World Primary Energy Demand 21

Primary Energy Demand in the United States 23

Primary Energy Demand in the European Union and Japan 26

Primary Energy Demand in the D-6 27

Income Elasticities in Developing Countries 29

Projections of Energy Demand 30

Oil Refining and Distribution 30

Conclusions 32

3 Energy Reserves and Production 35

Introduction 35

Proved Reserves Compared with Probable Reserves 36

Oil Reserves and Production 37

Natural Gas Reserves and Production 40

Coal Reserves and Production 42

Three Stages of Conventional Oil Production (Excluding Oil Shale and Tar Sands) 46

Exploration and Development of New Reserves 50

Politics of Revenue Sharing 51

World Energy Growth until 2030 52

Projected Energy Supplies 54

Electricity: Projections to 2030 (Reference Case) 60

Conclusions 63

4 Energy Prices and Costs 67

Introduction 67

Markets for Fossil Fuels 68

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Prices 70

Real Prices of Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal 72

Price Projections Through 2030 76

Future Costs of Uranium and Thorium 78

Renewable Energies 79

Conclusions 80

5 Imports andExports-Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal 83

Introduction 83

Comparative Costs 84

Where Do U.S. Imports Come From? 87

Global Oil Exports and Imports 88

U.S. Natural Gas Imports 92

Global Natural Gas Exports and Imports 92

Global Coal Exports and Imports 94

Conclusions 95

6 Energies for the Future 99

Introduction 99

The Roles of Natural Resources 100

The Age of Substitutability: Infinite Energy? 101

The Future of Conventional Oil 105

Why the Middle East Is the Key to Conventional Peak Oil Production 111

Unconventional Oil: Economics, Technology, and Politics 116

Unconventional Gas 120

Conclusions 122

7 Fossil Fuels, Carbon Dioxide, and Global Warming 125

Introduction 125

Greenhouse Gas Emissions 126

A Scientific Consensus on CO[subscript 2] and Global Warming 129

Industry Viewpoints on Fossil Fuels and Global Warming 130

The Kyoto Protocol 132

Politics of Global Warming 134

Regional Carbon Dioxide Emissions 135

Carbon Dioxide Intensities of Production 136

Past and Projected Climate Changes 139

Some Costs of Global Warming 139

Regional Warming in the United States 140

CO[subscript 2] Capture and Storage 141

Conclusions 146

8 Conclusions 149

Energy in the Twenty-First Century 149

International Trade 152

Global Warming 153

China's Growing Military Power 155

Conflicts in the Middle East 156

Global Trends in Energy and Wealth 157

An Uncertain Future 158

Glossary 161

References 167

Index 175

See also:

The Resilient Enterprise: Overcoming Vulnerability for Competitive Advantage

Author: Yossi Sheffi

Gold Award Winner for Business and Economics in the 2005 ForeWord Magazine Book of the Year Awards

What happens when fire strikes the manufacturing plant of the sole supplier for the brake pressure valve used in every Toyota? When a hurricane shuts down production at a Unilever plant? When Dell and Apple chip manufacturers in Taiwan take weeks to recover from an earthquake? When the U.S. Pacific ports are shut down during the Christmas rush? When terrorists strike? In The Resilient Enterprise, Yossi Sheffi shows that companies' fortunes in the face of such business shocks depend more on choices made before the disruption than they do on actions taken in the midst of it--and that resilience benefits firms every day, disaster or no disaster. He shows how companies can build in flexibility throughout their supply chains, based on proven design principles and the right culture--balancing security, redundancy, and short-term profits. And he shows how investments in resilience and flexibility not only reduce risk but create a competitive advantage in the increasingly volatile marketplace.

Sheffi describes the way companies can increase security--reducing the likelihood of a disruption--with layered defenses, the tracking and analysis of “near-misses,” fast detection, and close collaboration with government agencies, trading partners, and even competitors. But the focus of the book is on resilience--the ability to bounce back from disruptions and disasters--by building in redundancy and flexibility. For example, standardization, modular design, and collaborative relationships with suppliers (and other stakeholders) can help create a robust supplychain. And a corporate culture of flexibility--with distributed decision making and communications at all levels--can create a resilient enterprise.

Sheffi provides tools for companies to reduce the vulnerability of the supply chain they live in. And along the way he tells the stories of dozens of enterprises, large and small, including Toyota, Nokia, General Motors, Zara, Land Rover, Chiquita, Aisin Seiki, Southwest Airlines, UPS, Johnson and Johnson, Intel, Amazon.com, the U.S. Navy, and others, from across the globe. Their successes, failures, preparations, and methods provide a rich set of lessons in preparing for and managing disruptions.

Additional material available at TheResilientEnterprise.com



No comments: